The wisdom of individuals
What’s the optimal strategy to win a count-the-jellybeans-in-the-jar contest? One method is to count the number of jellybeans that would fit along each of the jar’s dimensions, and then multiply to estimate the volume of the jar in jellybeans. But a surprisingly accurate guess is… the average of everyone else’s! Even though everyone will be wrong—some too high, some too low—on average … More The wisdom of individuals