This is my take on a classic probability paradox, the case of Sleeping Beauty. Along the way I’ll explain what I think is wrong with a classic rule of inference, Bayes’ Rule, and what needs to be done to fix it, but I hope you enjoy the paradox even if you don’t have a background in … More The Sleeping Beauty Paradox
Today’s post is a short paradox about averages, and how they don’t always match expectations. Imagine you’re a freshman college student, happily confident of a personalized education—after all, your college boasts an average class size of a mere 10 students per course. But when you arrive, most of your classes have far more students than … More The class size paradox
Clara and I have to take a written exam in order to transfer our driver’s licenses to Minnesota, so we’re studying the Minnesota driver’s manual. In the section on crosswalks I found this instruction: The problem is that you can’t leave an intersection both as quickly as possible AND as safely as possible. To leave … More Optimization Metrics
Owen Biesel 